Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis

Publication

Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis

Journal Paper/Review - Sep 12, 2017

Yerly S, Marzolini C, Martinez de Tejada B, Martinetti G, Ledergerber B, Kovari H, Kouyos R D, Klimkait T, Keiser O, Kaiser L, Kahlert Christian, Hösli I, Hoffmann M, Hirsch H H, Hasse B, Metzner K J, Müller N, Weber R, Wandeler G, Vernazza Pietro, Trkola A, Tarr P, Stöckle M, Speck R, Schmid Patrick, Scherrer A U, Rudin C, Rauch A, Paioni P, Pantaleo G, Nicca D, Haerry D, Günthard H F, Fux C A, Kouyos Roger D, Günthard Huldrych F, Hoffmann Matthias, Furrer Hansjakob, Cavassini Matthias, Calmy Alexandra, Bernasconi Enos, Battegay Manuel, Klimkait Thomas, Aubert Vincent, Yerly Sabine, Böni Jürg, Kadelka Claus, Bachmann Nadine, Swiss HIV Cohort Study, Aubert V, Furrer H, Fellay J, Fehr J, Elzi L, Egger M, Dollenmaier G, Ciuffi A, Cavassini M, Calmy A, Bucher H C, Braun D L, Böni J, Bernasconi E, Battegay M, Turk Teja

Citation

Yerly S, Marzolini C, Martinez de Tejada B, Martinetti G, Ledergerber B, Kovari H, Kouyos R, Klimkait T, Keiser O, Kaiser L, Kahlert C, Hösli I, Hoffmann M, Hirsch H, Hasse B, Metzner K, Müller N, Weber R, Wandeler G, Vernazza P, Trkola A, Tarr P, Stöckle M, Speck R, Schmid P, Scherrer A, Rudin C, Rauch A, Paioni P, Pantaleo G, Nicca D, Haerry D, Günthard H, Fux C, Kouyos R, Günthard H, Hoffmann M, Furrer H, Cavassini M, Calmy A, Bernasconi E, Battegay M, Klimkait T, Aubert V, Yerly S, Böni J, Kadelka C, Bachmann N, Swiss HIV Cohort Study, Aubert V, Furrer H, Fellay J, Fehr J, Elzi L, Egger M, Dollenmaier G, Ciuffi A, Cavassini M, Calmy A, Bucher H, Braun D, Böni J, Bernasconi E, Battegay M, Turk T. Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis. Elife 2017; 6

Type

Journal Paper/Review (English)

Journal

Elife 2017; 6

Publication Date

Sep 12, 2017

Issn Electronic

2050-084X

Brief description/objective

Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42-0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%-17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data.